Financial independence, the ‘FI’ in FIRE, is the point at which your investments can pay for your spending without you needing to work. Enter what you want to spend each year, a withdrawal rate, your savings and the return you expect: you get your target pot, the number of years to reach it, how long it then lasts and, if you set a target, the monthly saving it takes. Once you enter inflation, every amount is in today’s money.
Start from your spending, not your income
Your target depends on what you will spend, not on what you earn now. Count everything you expect to spend in a year without work: housing, food, transport, holidays, and any tax on what you take out of your investments. If some income carries on without work, such as net rent, enter it under ‘Other yearly income’: only the rest has to come from the pot.
Choose a withdrawal rate
The withdrawal rate is the share of the pot you take out each year. Your target is the yearly withdrawal divided by that rate: 25 times it at 4%, 28.57 times at 3.5%, 33.33 times at 3%. The lower the rate, the bigger the target and the better the pot’s chances of lasting. The calculator starts at 4%: it is only an assumption, to set as cautiously as you wish.
Return and inflation
Enter the average yearly return you expect from your investments after fees, then the inflation you expect. The calculator works out the real return, (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1, and works in today’s money: your monthly saving is assumed to rise with prices. With no inflation entered, the return is used as it is, which flatters the result if prices rise.
Reading the result
You get your target pot, the time it takes to reach it and, if you give your age, the age at which you get there. The calculator also shows how long the pot lasts once you start drawing on it, at a steady return: indefinitely if the real return covers the withdrawal rate, otherwise a number of years. With a target, it works out the monthly saving needed. The year-by-year projection exports as a CSV file.
Target pot = (yearly spending − other income) ÷ withdrawal rate, rounded to the penny.
Real return = (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1, rounded to 0.01 of a percentage point.
Each year: pot at year end = pot × (1 + real return) + 12 × monthly saving. The year’s growth is rounded to the nearest penny (halves away from zero), and the year’s saving is added at the end of the year, earning nothing that year.
The time to get there is the first year the pot reaches the target (100 years at most). The monthly saving needed is the smallest, to the penny, that reaches it within your target.
Example: £25,000 a year, £50,000 saved and £1,500 a month
At 4%, the target pot is £25,000.00 ÷ 4% = £625,000.00, 25 times your spending. With a 6% return and 2% inflation, the real return is (1.06 ÷ 1.02) − 1 = 3.92%. Adding 12 × £1,500.00 = £18,000.00 a year, the pot reaches £639,460.95 after 20 years: at 30 today, you get there at 50. To get there within 15 years you would need to save £2,243.94 a month. As the 4% withdrawal rate is only just above the 3.92% real return, the pot then shrinks very slowly: at a steady return it lasts more than 100 years.